Monday, 10 May 2010

Update 10 May 2010

Gold consolidated its gains on Friday trading - closing over 4% higher over the week, with the equities markets (DJI and Nasdaq in particular) wiping off all their gains from this year, as concerns over the spread of the Greek crisis continue. Hitting USD$1213 before pulling back at close of trade, the Gold Spot is currently USD$1208.

Standard Bank recently said in it's monthly report on precious metals "The escalating concerns over the risks of contagion of the Greek financial problems have cast a heavy cloud over the euro and even raised some issues about its relevance as a reserve currency."

The report went on to say "When added to reservations about the size of the US budget deficit, as voiced by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, this has laid the foundation for gold’s rejuvenation as an asset of last resort."

Darran Grabham, an Analyst for Standard Bank added "Gold will find support at $1,150 and then $1,120, but over the long run, gold could reach $1,325 per ounce, with the next step at $1,240"

Hussein Allidina from Morgan Stanley wrote in an e-mailed report yesterday. "We like owning gold and expect further upside as sovereign risks intensify and real rates remain anchored."

"Increasing sovereign risk is lifting appetite for gold."

Commentators appear to see prices lifting, at least in the short term.

A recent Bloomberg update stated "Gold may target its previous record as concern that financial turmoil will spread from Greece across Europe prompts investors to seek refuge in the metal"

"While contagion fears persist, gold should remain well supported and we expect gold to test its December 2009 high above $1,200 an ounce," analysts including New York-based Hussein Allidina wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

Another Bloomberg source stated "H3 Global Advisors, a Sydney-based commodities and hedge-fund manager, is banking on gold’s advance to $1,500 an ounce in the next year and reducing its exposure to industrial metals such as nickel."

One trader in New York said Greece’s debt problems were not entirely responsible for gold’s recent rise, adding that liquidity has dried up around the world. "It is now clear that there is no money of any sort available at the sovereign level."

Locally, the Kiwi dollar climbed slightly against the USD, with the agricultural commodities sector providing a good backdrop for future strength, but still very range bound between 0.71 and 0.72. This has tempered NZD$ priced gold, with the spot rate dropping its high of NZD$1700 to NZD$1680.

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